Long-Term Forest Loss and Biodiversity Exposure in Indonesia: A Multi-Scale Assessment of National Trends (2001-2024) and Provincial Hotspots (2001-2020)
Keywords:
forest loss, biodiversity exposure, fragmentation, peatland, Indonesia, Global Forest Watch.Abstract
Indonesia's forest-loss trajectory is nationally improving but spatially uneven, creating a need to separate aggregate decline from subnational biodiversity exposure. This study integrates annual Global Forest Watch/University of Maryland tree-cover loss (2001-2024), tropical primary-forest loss (2002-2024), and province-level five-year loss aggregates (2001-2020) within a landscape-fragmentation and social-ecological resilience framework. Trend inference used Kendall's tau and Theil-Sen slopes, while provincial concentration was evaluated with regional aggregation, concentration shares, trajectory ratios, and a Gini coefficient. Indonesia lost 31.96 million ha of tree cover during 2001-2024, with a 2016 peak of 2.42 million ha. For 2015-2024, tree-cover loss declined significantly (tau=-0.511, p=0.047; Sen slope=-97,216 ha/year), while primary-forest loss also declined (tau=-0.689, p=0.0047; Sen slope=-34,399 ha/year). Provincial exposure remained concentrated: Riau lost 49.7% of its 2000 tree-cover baseline by 2020, followed by Bangka Belitung (41.7%), South Sumatra (40.6%), and Jambi (37.3%); the five largest-loss provinces accounted for 62.3% of provincial loss and the Gini coefficient was 0.649. The results show that national improvement does not remove localized fragmentation risk, especially across peat-dominated Sumatran and Kalimantan landscapes. Conservation monitoring should therefore combine national trend metrics with province-level pressure trajectories, functional connectivity, hydrological condition, fire recurrence, and species-level validation.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Ahmad Rizaldy Fanbudy, Diganta Hatiboruah (Author)
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