Analysis of the Oligopolistic Market Structure in Indonesia’s Telecommunications Industry
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65310/17mdkt57Kata Kunci:
barriers to entry, market concentration, oligopoly, strategic conduct, telecommunications industry.Abstrak
Indonesia's mobile telecommunications industry has undergone substantial consolidation, raising concerns about market concentration, entry barriers, and competitive conduct. This study analyzes the oligopolistic market structure following successive operator mergers and examines implications for competition and consumer welfare. A descriptive qualitative approach supported by quantitative analysis employed secondary data from corporate reports, regulatory documents, and telecommunications industry publications covering 2020–2025, supplemented by first-quarter 2026 observations. Market concentration was measured using the three-firm concentration ratio and Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), while entry barriers and strategic conduct were examined through documentary analysis. Subscriber-based HHI increased from 2,958 in the second quarter of 2021 to 3,727 in the first quarter of 2026, while revenue-based HHI reached approximately 3,905 in 2025. The Indosat–Hutchison and XL Axiata–Smartfren mergers increased HHI by approximately 408 and 345 points, respectively. Telkomsel retained the largest subscriber share at 48.77%, followed by Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison at 29.83% and XLSmart at 21.39%. Spectrum scarcity, infrastructure requirements, and capital intensity reinforced entry barriers. Operators increasingly prioritized revenue optimization and network development. The findings support stronger post-merger oversight, although available evidence cannot establish coordinated pricing or causal consumer welfare effects.
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Referensi
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Hak Cipta (c) 2026 Saskia Ayu Wandira, Sarpini Sarpini (Author)
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